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Judul : Reasons to be cheerful 1, 2, 3...?
link : Reasons to be cheerful 1, 2, 3...?

Reasons to be cheerful 1, 2, 3...?

Due to the restrictions of a monster hangover and the ability to only be able to focus by closing one eye, this is being rationed to bullet points.


Reasons to be cheerful 1, 2, 3...


Cash:

• Libor destressing - EDM0 has bounced, Whites-Reds steepening, EURUSD basis sharply tighter.
• $5.4bn taken in ECB's USD FX Swap lines, by just three bidders. Clearly yesterday's rumours about a certain Mediterranean bank were untrue.

Equities:

• Hammer in candlestick on US stocks (compare with 5th feb low) and failure to breach and hold the year's lows.
• 89% of stocks in the S&P500 being more than one standard deviation below their 50day moving average.
• Island reversal in Eurostoxx against the May 7th lows.
• Even Marc Faber saying its a buy.

FX:

• EURNOK falling.
• USDSEK soothsayer technical sell, GBPJPY soothsayer technical buy.
• Corporates returning to put on long term hedges in non-USDs.

Policymakers:

• Relative silence on the European front (Mangler been bound and gagged).
• The US is clearly pissed off with EU policy incompetence.
• Geithner called for a Eurozone bank stress test (swearing on the phone call between Obama & Mangler?!). Important as Fed/Treasury think US Stress Tests were point at which they "won the war" re: market confidence.
• Joint US/German press conference announced for tomorrow - policymaking is finally being internationally coordinated.
• Italy followed Spain, Portugal & Greece in enacting a deeper fiscal austerity plan.
• Barney Frank has killed the Swap Desk provisions in the Financial Regulation Bill.

The Economy:

• Background data continues to be good (although no effect from the recent panic has fed through yet).
• Consumer Expectations component of US Consumer Confidence points to robust growth in PCE(chart below, PCE yoy lagged 6months).

Reasons to be miserable 1, 2, 3...

• The bounces in risky-FX have been tepid.
• Read any recent press piece.
• Europe is still a complete mess.
• Credit/Equity pipeline a potential supply overhang.
• Someone has handed German regulators a loaded machine gun.
• Going to ban people with "fat fingers" next?
• Monster hangover from last night.
• Living in the UK.

Care to add your own reasons to be cheerful or miserable in the comments?

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